Washington D.C. | December 30, 2025
Economists project that the U.S. economy will accelerate in 2026, building on resilient growth in 2025 despite several headwinds. Goldman Sachs forecasts GDP growth of around 2.6% next year, supported by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax cuts in the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” retroactive R&D deductions for small businesses, and loosened interest deduction limits.
Continued AI infrastructure investments by major firms such as Amazon and Alphabet are also expected to drive productivity gains and corporate expansion.
The U.S. economy remained resilient in 2025, with Q3 GDP rising 4.3% annualized, even amid elevated inflation, ongoing tariffs, and a six-week government shutdown. Core PCE inflation averaged roughly 2.8%, partly reflecting the pass-through impact of tariffs on imported goods.
Corporate profits surged, yet bankruptcies hit a 15-year high, with more than 700 filings, including high-profile companies such as Spirit Airlines, Claire’s, and Rite Aid. Tariffs significantly affected import-dependent sectors, contributing to financial stress.
The labor market remained stable, with unemployment hovering between 4.5–4.6%, characterized as a “low-hire, low-fire” environment—conditions that are expected to ease into 2026 as economic growth picks up.
Analysts from Oxford Economics and Goldman Sachs highlight that policy measures, tax incentives, and AI-driven corporate spending will play key roles in sustaining growth, potentially offsetting lingering inflationary pressures and sectoral vulnerabilities.
Overall, the U.S. economy is entering 2026 with optimism for accelerated growth, stronger corporate performance, and technological investments, while maintaining a cautious eye on lingering structural risks from 2025.
