Different estimates on unemployment and labour force in India do not match each other at all. The lack of robust data and frequent release of official data has made it difficult to understand the ground reality. Partha Pratim Mitra explains the reasons for the contrasting trends.
According to some reports, the country will struggle to generate enough employment opportunities even with a growth rate of 7%, while the labour ministry has strongly denied this claim. This fails to take into account the comprehensive and positive employment data available from official sources such as the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and the Reserve Bank of India’s KLEMS data.
The survey conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a private body, said that the unemployment rate in India has increased from 7% in May 2024 to 9.2% in June 2024, according to its Consumer Pyramid Household Survey. Unemployment rates have risen in rural as well as urban India. The rural unemployment rate rose from 6.3% in May to 9.3% in June.
Contrasting trends in estimates by government and private agencies have raised questions on the very basis of these estimates, which need to be clarified. Along with the differences, there are other issues that contribute to different conclusions such as the definition of household and the reference period of employment. PLC & GT
