{Arun Jaitley**}
P. Chidambaram, the Union Finance Minister, has decided not to contest the Lok Sabha election. His is a pragmatic decision since a politically isolated Congress is hardly likely to win any seat from Tamil Nadu.
Traditionally, the politics of Tamil Nadu has been polarized between the AIADMK and the DMK-led fronts. The Congress could superficially have increased the support to any of the two fronts by joining them. Today, both have distanced themselves from the Congress. The AIADMK at the Centre has been very skeptical of the UPA. The DMK feels it has been betrayed by the UPA. These two parties have kept their options open till after the elections.
Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh had added significantly to the UPA numbers both in 2004 and 2009. These two states had tilted the balance in favour of the UPA. This time the biggest setback to the UPA will come from these two states.
The BJP in Tamil Nadu had marginal strength. It has succeeded in expanding its support base this time. The Modi factor in particular is adding to the BJP strength. Its vote share across the state is predicted to be in double digits. The BJP has forged an alliance with the DMDK, PMK, MDMK and two other smaller regional groups.
This combination is capable of transforming the bilateral fight into three-cornered fight. Not only is the vote share of the NDA alliance going to be very significant, the fact that it is a ‘Modi-led alliance’ is adding to its strength. The possibility of this alliance picking up seats is real. A three cornered fight in Tamil Nadu has so far been an untested battle.
In 1996, the NDA had only three parties. In less than two years Atalji transformed it into a 24-party alliance. Is the NDA moving in that direction? After Tamil Nadu, I expect some positive outcome of the alliance talks in both Seemandhra and Telangana. If that were to happen the only states where BJP would be without any alliance are Kerala, Odisha and West Bengal. With the support of GJMM in North Bengal, the possibility of winning some seats in the state appears positive. The party’s strength in Odisha and Kerala has shown a vote share increment. The NDA today represents the real federal character of India.
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**Arun Jaitley
Leader of Opposition (Rajya Sabha )
*Disclaimer: The writer is Leader of Opposition Rajya Sabha and the views expressed by the author in this feature are entirely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of INVC.
