Mumbai, India | January 9, 2026
Mobile recharge plans in India could become more expensive from June 2026, as telecom operators prepare for another round of tariff hikes, according to a new report by global brokerage firm Jefferies.
The report estimates that mobile service tariffs may rise by around 15 percent in June 2026, marking the next major price increase nearly two years after the previous hike. Analysts say the move would be critical for boosting sector revenues and supporting the long-anticipated Reliance Jio initial public offering (IPO).
Jio IPO Seen as Key Trigger
In a report authored by Jefferies equity analysts Akshat Agrawal and Ayush Bansal, the brokerage projects a high likelihood of the Jio IPO in the first half of 2026. According to the analysts, the IPO could significantly lift valuations across the telecom sector and create the groundwork for higher mobile tariffs.
The report adds that Reliance Jio may increase its mobile tariffs by 10 to 20 percent, with the objective of narrowing its valuation gap with rival Bharti Airtel and delivering double-digit internal rates of return (IRR) to investors.
Strong Revenue Growth Expected
Jefferies estimates that the proposed tariff hike would lead to a sharp acceleration in sector revenue growth. Telecom industry revenue growth is projected to rise from 7 percent in FY26 to nearly 16 percent in FY27, more than doubling year-on-year.
A 15 percent headline tariff hike in June 2026 is also expected to result in a 14 percent increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) in FY27, reflecting healthier monetization for telecom operators.
Subscriber Growth May Slow
However, the report cautions that higher tariffs could slightly slow the pace of new subscriber additions, as rising costs may affect price-sensitive users. Despite this, analysts believe the overall impact on profitability and long-term sector sustainability would remain positive.
