The latest survey for the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to become the largest party in the state. According to the survey, BJP is likely to secure 25.8% of the vote share, positioning itself ahead of other contenders. However, despite leading the pack, the survey suggests that no party is on track to secure an outright majority.
Congress Follows Closely, But Faces Challenges
The Indian National Congress is expected to be the second-largest party, with an estimated 18.6% of the votes. While this places Congress in a strong position, it still lags significantly behind the BJP. The challenge for Congress will be to convert this vote share into a substantial number of seats in the assembly.
Shiv Sena’s Divided Fortunes
The survey highlights a split in Shiv Sena’s voter base, with both factions—led by Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray—vying for influence. Shinde’s Shiv Sena is projected to receive 14.2% of the vote share, whereas Uddhav Thackeray’s faction is expected to secure 17.6%. This division could impact their overall performance, potentially weakening their influence in the state assembly.
NCP’s Factions Struggle to Gain Traction
The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is also experiencing a split, with Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar leading separate factions. The survey indicates that Sharad Pawar’s faction is expected to receive 6.2% of the vote share, while Ajit Pawar’s group could capture 5.2%. Both factions may struggle to convert these percentages into a significant number of seats.
Projected Seat Distribution: A Hung Assembly Likely
In the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, which comprises 288 seats, the BJP is expected to secure between 95 and 105 seats. Shinde’s Shiv Sena might win 19-24 seats, while Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction could claim 7-12 seats. The Congress, as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), is projected to win 42-47 seats, with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena securing 26-31 seats, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction obtaining 23-28 seats. The remaining 11-16 seats could go to other parties or independent candidates.
The Majority Hurdle: Mahayuti Falls Short
The magic number for a majority in the Maharashtra Assembly is 145 seats. Even if the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance maximizes its seat potential, it is expected to fall short of this target, potentially securing only up to 141 seats. This shortfall indicates that the Mahayuti may need to seek alliances or support from other parties to form a government.
MVA Faces Tough Battle
On the other hand, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, consisting of Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, is expected to win around 122 seats. This total also falls short of the majority mark, suggesting that the MVA may face significant challenges in its quest to regain power in Maharashtra.
A Fragmented Verdict on the Horizon
The Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 are shaping up to be a highly competitive and fragmented contest. While the BJP is emerging as the largest party, the survey indicates that no single party or alliance is likely to secure an outright majority. This sets the stage for intense post-election negotiations, as all major players will likely need to form alliances to establish a stable government in Maharashtra. The survey results underscore the unpredictability of the upcoming election and the potential for a hung assembly.
