Caribbean Weather Alert | November 5, 2025
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirmed that Tropical Storm Rafael has officially formed in the central Caribbean, bringing heavy rains, flash floods, and strong winds to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
Forecasters warn that Rafael could intensify into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwest toward the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.
“Conditions are favorable for rapid strengthening over the next 48 hours,” said NHC Senior Meteorologist Dr. Alicia Porter.
Current Position and Movement
As of Wednesday morning (ET), Tropical Storm Rafael was centered about 180 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, moving northwest at 15 mph with sustained winds near 65 mph.
Meteorologists report falling central pressure, signaling further intensification over warm Caribbean waters.
Projected Path:
Wednesday–Thursday: Passes near Jamaica and eastern Cuba
Friday: Moves into the Yucatán Channel
Weekend: Could approach the northern Gulf Coast — from Louisiana to Florida Panhandle
Evacuations Underway in Jamaica and Cuba
Authorities in Jamaica’s southern parishes and eastern Cuba have issued mandatory evacuation orders for low-lying and coastal regions prone to flooding.
Local media report power outages and landslides in the mountainous areas of St. Thomas and Clarendon.
The Cuban Civil Defense is preparing emergency shelters across Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo provinces.
“We are not taking chances — residents in coastal towns are being moved inland,” said Cuban disaster coordinator Manuel Orta.
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Risks
The NHC expects rainfall totals of 6–10 inches across Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with isolated areas possibly receiving up to 15 inches.
Flash flooding and mudslides remain a major concern, particularly in mountainous regions.
Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the storm’s center, with waves exceeding 12 feet in some Caribbean waters.
Potential U.S. Impact
While Rafael’s long-term forecast remains uncertain, most models indicate a northwestward turn toward the Gulf of Mexico.
Residents along the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts are advised to monitor updates closely through the weekend.
“A strengthening storm entering the Gulf late Friday could pose a significant wind and surge threat,” warned NHC director Michael Brennan.
Airlines and Travel Alerts
American Airlines and JetBlue have waived change fees for passengers traveling through Kingston, Montego Bay, and Havana through November 8.
Cruise lines have begun rerouting ships away from the western Caribbean corridor.
Preparation & Safety Guidelines
Residents in affected areas are urged to:
Secure property and outdoor items.
Stock emergency supplies, water, and medications.
Stay tuned to local weather advisories and alerts.
Avoid flooded roads and coastal areas.
The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) has deployed response teams to assist local authorities in relief coordination.
Outlook: Rafael Expected to Strengthen
The NHC forecasts Tropical Storm Rafael could reach hurricane strength by late Thursday, with maximum sustained winds exceeding 75 mph.
Warm sea-surface temperatures above 29°C (84°F) and light upper-level winds are contributing to its rapid intensification.
