Washington – Renowned historian Alan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting the results of US presidential elections, has once again given his opinion about the 2024 presidential election. According to him, this time Kamala Harris will emerge as the winner in the election, even though Donald Trump’s popularity remains strong. Lichtman said that his prediction is based on a system called The Keys to the White House, which he developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Kellis-Borok. This method analyzes 13 major factors, including the party’s position in Congress, the strength of the economy, scandals, social instability and the charisma of the candidate.
Eight major factors in the political landscape favor Harris
Eight major factors in the current political landscape favor Harris, which firmly establishes the possibility of her victory. This system has proved the results of nine out of ten elections since 1984, making it a reliable source. Despite this, this time Lichtman has faced unprecedented criticism for his analysis. He revealed that he has been receiving obscene and threatening messages, including targeting his family. Lichtman said that he has faced more hostility than ever in this election cycle, which is quite different from previous elections.
This factor is not enough to bring Trump back to power
However, Lichtman believes that foreign policy developments, especially the role of the Biden administration in the Gaza conflict, can affect the electoral scenario. He says that if there is a major change in US policy on this issue, then this factor can affect the results. However, he also added that given the current situation, this factor will not be enough to bring Trump back to power.
There will be a historic change in American politics
If Kamala Harris wins the election as per this prediction, she will become the first woman and first black president of America, which will be a historic change in American politics. This analysis of Lichtman has become a topic of discussion in political circles. Now it remains to be seen what is the result of his historic prediction and whether the 2024 elections will write a new history.
