India is currently grappling with intense heatwaves and blistering sunlight, but a significant weather shift is on the horizon. As we enter May, pre-monsoon activity is expected to escalate across the country, offering temporary relief from extreme heat while also bringing strong winds, thunderstorms, and rainfall to several regions.
Nationwide Pre-Monsoon Surge Expected in Early May
According to leading meteorological agencies, including the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet Weather, early May will witness a marked increase in pre-monsoon weather activity. This development comes amid record-breaking temperatures in Rajasthan, Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and parts of South India.
We can expect:
Dust storms and thunderstorms in North and Central India
Moderate to heavy rainfall in the South and Northeast
Gusty winds up to 60 km/h
Localized hailstorm activity in elevated terrains
Where Will It Rain? Regional Breakdown of Upcoming Weather Systems
North and Northwest India: From Heatwaves to Storm Cells
States like Delhi, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and Western Uttar Pradesh are currently enduring severe heatwave conditions, with daily temperatures soaring past 45°C in several locations. However, a Western Disturbance is likely to trigger a cyclonic circulation, creating a trough extending from the Pakistan border to the Gangetic plains.
This will result in:
Scattered rain and thunderstorms
Sudden drops in temperature
Temporary disruption to dust storms and poor air quality
Northeast India: Active Rainfall Window from May 1 to May 8
A cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and adjoining Assam will dominate the Northeastern region. This system is poised to intensify between May 6 and May 8, enhancing rain and thunderstorm activity.
Expect the following in Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland:
Heavy showers accompanied by frequent lightning
Localized flooding in low-lying areas
Visibility issues due to mist and cloudbursts
Central and Eastern India: Heatwaves Will Coexist with Rainfall Pockets
In Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha, the weather will remain complex. A mix of intense heatwaves and intermittent thundershowers will dominate, especially around the tri-junction of Bihar-Odisha-West Bengal.
Highlights:
Daily highs above 43°C for most districts
Late afternoon thunderstorms with high wind speeds
Increased risk of lightning strikes and crop damage
Southern States: Consistent Pre-Monsoon Showers Ahead
A seasonal trough extending from Tamil Nadu to Kerala, combined with moisture-laden southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea, will drive scattered rainfall events in:
Karnataka
Telangana
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Kerala
Goa
These regions will experience:
Moderate daily rainfall
Occasional thundershowers and isolated hailstorms
Slight cooling of daytime temperatures, especially in interiors
Gujarat and Western Extremes: Rare Pre-Monsoon Activity Incoming
In an unusual pattern, Gujarat and western Rajasthan — regions typically spared during pre-monsoon events — are expected to witness thunderstorm activity by May 7 and 8. This will be the result of southwesterly Arabian Sea winds clashing with northern troughs extending into Saurashtra and Kutch.
Forecasted effects:
Unseasonal rainfall across Kandla, Rajkot, and Bhuj
Short bursts of gusty winds and lightning
High humidity levels persisting even after rainfall
Heatwave Outlook: IMD Warns of Extended Extreme Temperature Days
While rainfall will bring temporary cooling, the heatwave is far from over. IMD Director-General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has warned that several regions will experience a higher-than-average number of heatwave days this May.
Key zones to watch:
Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi NCR: 1–4 more days of heatwaves than normal
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Telangana: Above-normal temperature spikes expected
Daytime highs may breach 46°C in select interiors
Pre-Monsoon Rainfall and Its Role in Shaping the Southwest Monsoon
The pre-monsoon period from March to May plays a critical role in preparing soil moisture levels, atmospheric humidity, and sea temperature gradients — all of which influence the arrival and intensity of the Southwest Monsoon.
Current conditions suggest:
The pre-monsoon rainfall peak in early May is likely to enhance monsoon onset by activating the lower troposphere
Soil wetness from these rains will aid deeper monsoon penetration
El Niño neutral conditions improving the monsoon probability
Above-Average Rainfall Expected in North India
IMD projections show that North India may receive up to 109% of its long-period average (64.1 mm) rainfall in May. The consistent storms and moisture influx will prevent temperatures from soaring as they did in May 2024.
Benefits expected:
Lower fire risks in forested areas
Reduced agricultural stress
Urban cooling due to cloud cover and rain
Atmospheric Systems Fueling Weather Instability
Several meteorological systems are now converging to produce this volatile weather pattern:
Western Disturbance over Pakistan and Northern India
Cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and Northeast India
East-West trough over Indo-Gangetic plains
Moisture feed from the Arabian Sea
Upper air cyclonic circulations in South India
Together, they will sustain:
Thunderstorm belts from Jammu to Kerala
Daily lightning alerts across Bihar, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh
Cloudburst potential in hilly regions
Conclusion: Brace for a Weather Rollercoaster in May
May 2025 is shaping up to be dynamic, wet, and unpredictably stormy. While heatwaves will continue to trouble many parts of the country, especially in the northwestern belt, the onset of pre-monsoon storms will provide occasional relief and crucial soil preparation for the coming Southwest Monsoon.
Citizens are advised to:
Stay indoors during peak lightning hours
Keep hydrated and avoid exposure during heatwave periods
Monitor official weather bulletins for regional alerts
The coming days will bring flashes of relief and fury, but with it, the promise of the monsoon rains that India deeply relies on.
