As Russia faces setbacks in Ukraine, President Putin seeks new alliances, turning to Azerbaijan, a country that has increasingly antagonized India. What does this mean for global geopolitics and the future of the Russia-India relationship?
The author of this article is Political analyst Neeraj Gupta.
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The geopolitical chessboard
The geopolitical chessboard is ever-evolving, and one of the latest moves has raised eyebrows around the globe. Amidst a grueling war with Ukraine, which has left Russia struggling to hold its ground, President Vladimir Putin has made a strategic pivot towards Azerbaijan. This move is particularly significant, not only because Azerbaijan has recently taken a stance that threatens India, but also because it highlights the shifting alliances and desperation in Russia’s foreign policy.
So, how did Putin get close to Azerbaijan, which is threatening India? This article dives deep into the reasons behind Russia’s latest diplomatic maneuver, the implications for India, and the broader context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Russia-Ukraine War: A Quagmire for Putin
Russia’s Faltering Campaign in Ukraine
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the world watched in anticipation, speculating how long it would take for Russian forces to overrun Ukrainian defenses. Yet, two years later, the situation has turned into a protracted conflict, with Russia struggling to maintain control over the territories it initially seized. Despite heavy bombardments and ground offensives, Russia has faced significant resistance from the Ukrainian military, backed by Western nations, particularly the United States.
The war has become a financial and human drain on Russia, with sanctions crippling its economy and the military suffering heavy losses. The recent advance of Ukrainian forces into Russian territory, particularly in Kursk, has further demonstrated the precariousness of Putin’s position. With NATO’s support of Ukraine becoming more overt, Russia’s geopolitical standing is increasingly under threat.
The Search for New Allies
Given the challenges on the battlefield and the international isolation Russia faces, it’s no surprise that Putin is actively seeking new allies. The question remains, though: how did Putin get close to Azerbaijan, which is threatening India? This shift is not just about finding friends but about ensuring survival. With traditional allies like Belarus wavering and economic pressures mounting, Russia is turning to less conventional partnerships.
Azerbaijan’s Rising Geopolitical Influence
Azerbaijan’s Stance Against India
Azerbaijan, a country with rich energy resources, has been growing in strategic importance over the past few years. Its location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, combined with its vast oil and gas reserves, makes it a key player in global energy markets. However, Azerbaijan has also been flexing its geopolitical muscles, notably in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where it has received significant support from Turkey.
Recently, Azerbaijan’s rhetoric has taken a sharper turn, particularly towards India. The tension between the two nations has been exacerbated by Azerbaijan’s support for Pakistan in the Kashmir issue and its criticism of India’s stance on Armenia. This has put India on alert, especially considering Azerbaijan’s close ties with Turkey, a country that has also had its share of disagreements with New Delhi.
Energy Diplomacy and Western Influence
Azerbaijan’s importance to the West, particularly Europe, cannot be understated. With Europe looking to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, Azerbaijan has emerged as a vital alternative source of oil and gas. This gives Baku considerable leverage in international relations. For Putin, aligning with Azerbaijan could be a way to exert indirect pressure on Europe, although it’s a risky gambit given Azerbaijan’s ties with NATO countries.
The Kremlin’s Calculations: Why Azerbaijan?
Diversifying Alliances Amidst Isolation
As Russia becomes increasingly isolated on the global stage, Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan can be seen as a calculated move to diversify its alliances. By getting closer to Baku, Russia can secure a foothold in the Caucasus region, which is strategically vital. Azerbaijan’s location provides access to both the Caspian Sea and the wider Middle East, areas where Russia has significant strategic interests.
But how did Putin get close to Azerbaijan, which is threatening India? It’s a question of mutual necessity. Azerbaijan, while aligned with the West on energy issues, also seeks to maintain a balance in its foreign policy. The country does not want to become overly dependent on any single power bloc, whether it be the West or Russia. For Russia, this presents an opportunity to bring Azerbaijan into its orbit, at least partially, while it faces off against NATO.
Energy Leverage: A Two-Edged Sword
One of the key aspects of Putin’s visit to Baku is undoubtedly energy diplomacy. Russia and Azerbaijan are both major players in the global energy market, and a closer relationship could have significant ramifications for global energy supplies. By aligning with Azerbaijan, Russia could potentially disrupt European energy supplies, which are increasingly relying on Azeri oil and gas.
However, this strategy is fraught with risks. Azerbaijan’s energy sector is heavily intertwined with Western investments and interests. If Baku were to align too closely with Moscow, it could face backlash from Europe and the United States, jeopardizing its economic growth and political stability.
Implications for India: A Diplomatic Tightrope
India’s Strategic Dilemma
India, a long-time ally of Russia, now finds itself in a difficult position. The growing closeness between Russia and Azerbaijan is troubling for New Delhi, especially given Baku’s recent hostile rhetoric. India’s ties with Russia have been historically strong, rooted in decades of defense cooperation and mutual interests in a multipolar world order. However, Russia’s pivot towards a country that is openly antagonistic towards India creates a strategic conundrum.
India cannot afford to alienate Russia, especially given its reliance on Russian military hardware and the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Yet, it also cannot ignore the threat posed by Azerbaijan. This situation forces India into a diplomatic balancing act, where it must maintain its relations with Russia while countering the growing influence of Azerbaijan and its allies.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: A Flashpoint
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been a significant point of contention in India-Azerbaijan relations. India has supported Armenia, a fellow democracy and a country with historical ties to New Delhi, in its struggle against Azerbaijan. This has naturally put India at odds with Azerbaijan, which views Indian support for Armenia as a direct challenge to its territorial claims in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia’s growing closeness with Azerbaijan, therefore, raises concerns in New Delhi about the future of its relationship with Moscow. If Russia continues to align itself with Azerbaijan, India might have to reassess its own strategic partnerships, potentially looking towards other global powers like the United States and France for support.
The NATO Factor: Limits of the Azerbaijan-Russia Alliance
Azerbaijan’s Western Ties
While Putin may be seeking to draw Azerbaijan closer into Russia’s sphere of influence, the reality is that Baku has its own interests to consider, many of which are aligned with the West. Azerbaijan’s energy exports to Europe are crucial for its economy, and any move that jeopardizes this relationship would be highly risky for President Ilham Aliyev.
Moreover, Azerbaijan has been cultivating its ties with NATO, particularly through its cooperation with Turkey, a NATO member. This complicates any potential Russia-Azerbaijan alliance. While Russia may hope to use Azerbaijan as a counterbalance to NATO, the reality is that Baku is unlikely to fully commit to such a relationship, given its own strategic priorities.
NATO’s Calculated Response
NATO, for its part, is likely keeping a close eye on the developments between Russia and Azerbaijan. While Azerbaijan is not a NATO member, its relationship with Turkey and its role in the European energy market make it an important player. NATO’s response will likely be measured, seeking to maintain Azerbaijan’s alignment with Western interests while avoiding direct confrontation with Russia.
The situation presents a delicate balance. If NATO pushes too hard, it risks driving Azerbaijan closer to Russia, which would be a strategic loss for the alliance. On the other hand, allowing Russia to gain a foothold in Azerbaijan could weaken NATO’s position in the Caucasus and the wider Middle East.
FAQs
Why is Putin interested in Azerbaijan now?
Putin’s interest in Azerbaijan stems from Russia’s need to diversify its alliances amidst growing isolation due to the Ukraine conflict. Azerbaijan’s strategic location and energy resources make it a valuable partner, even if the relationship is fraught with challenges.
How does Azerbaijan threaten India?
Azerbaijan’s recent actions, including its support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue and its criticism of India’s stance on Armenia, have positioned it as a potential threat to India’s strategic interests.
What are the risks for Russia in aligning with Azerbaijan?
Aligning with Azerbaijan could strain Russia’s relations with India and complicate its broader strategy in the region. Additionally, Azerbaijan’s ties with the West, particularly in the energy sector, limit how far it can align with Russia without facing significant economic and political repercussions.
Could this alliance impact the Russia-India relationship?
Yes, Russia’s growing closeness with Azerbaijan could create tensions in the Russia-India relationship, forcing India to reassess its strategic alliances and potentially seek closer ties with other global powers.
Conclusion
As Russia continues to grapple with its ongoing war in Ukraine, Putin’s pivot towards Azerbaijan is a clear sign of desperation and strategic recalibration. However, how did Putin get close to Azerbaijan, which is threatening India? It’s a complex interplay of mutual needs, geopolitical calculations, and the shifting dynamics of global power.
For India, this new alignment is a cause for concern, forcing New Delhi to navigate a challenging diplomatic landscape. For Russia, the move is a gamble, one that could either provide much-needed support or further isolate it on the world stage. As the situation unfolds, the global community will be watching closely, aware that these developments could have far-reaching
Disclaimer : The views expressed by the author in this feature are entirely her / his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of invc news.
