INVC NEWS
New Delhi — : An early arrival of the southwest monsoon in Kerala could bring much-needed relief to farmers and weather watchers alike. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that favorable conditions are developing for the monsoon to hit the southern coast of India within the next 4 to 5 days. This would mark one of the earliest monsoon onsets in over a decade, beating the usual date of June 1.
Monsoon Could Arrive by Late May
According to the IMD’s latest bulletin, the southwest monsoon could enter Kerala by May 24–25, significantly earlier than the expected May 27 and well before the historical average of June 1. If the forecast proves accurate, this could be the earliest monsoon onset since 2009, when it arrived on May 23.
The early onset is especially notable as it could accelerate rainfall patterns across the country. Typically, after arriving in Kerala, the monsoon spreads across India by July 8, before retreating by October 15.
Previous Year Onsets for Reference
2023 – June 8
2022 – May 29
2021 – June 3
2020 – June 1
2019 – June 8
2018 – May 29
What Does the IMD Say About Rainfall This Year?
The IMD had earlier projected above-normal rainfall for the 2025 season and dismissed any significant threat from El Niño, a climate phenomenon that typically reduces monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent. This prediction has boosted optimism for agriculture and water supply.
Understanding IMD’s Rainfall Classifications
96%–104% of the 50-year average (87 cm): Normal
90%–95%: Below Normal
Less than 90%: Deficient
105%–110%: Above Normal
Over 110%: Excess
Why a Strong Monsoon Season Matters
India’s agriculture sector remains heavily dependent on the monsoon. Roughly 42.3% of the Indian population earns a livelihood through agriculture, which contributes around 18.2% to the national GDP. A timely and healthy monsoon also helps replenish reservoirs, supports hydropower generation, and ensures adequate drinking water supply throughout the country.
A successful start to the monsoon could set a positive tone for the kharif cropping season and overall economic health in 2025.
