China’s Exports Dip 1.1% in October — First Decline in 8 Months Despite Strong EV and Solar Shipments

Beijing | November 7, 2025

China’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% year-over-year in October, marking the country’s first decline in eight months, according to official customs data released Friday morning. The downturn came despite robust shipments of electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, and lithium batteries, signaling ongoing headwinds from price pressures and reduced working days.

Economists had forecast modest export growth, but the dip highlights the fragility in China’s recovery amid global demand uncertainty and industrial overcapacity in key manufacturing sectors.

“The numbers show resilience in volume but weakness in value,” said Zhao Wen, senior trade analyst at Caixin Global. “Chinese exporters are moving more goods but earning less due to falling prices and fierce competition.”

Export Strength Meets Price Pain

While sectors like clean energy tech continue to buoy China’s trade profile, declining export prices — particularly in electronics and machinery — have eroded overall revenue. Analysts attribute this partly to an oversupply-driven price slump as factories ramp up production post-pandemic.

Additionally, fewer working days in October due to national holidays weighed on shipments, further distorting month-to-month comparisons.

Imports and Surplus Hold Firm

Imports were relatively stable, supported by rising domestic demand for semiconductors and energy goods. China’s trade surplus remains on track for record highs, as import volumes lag behind exports in value terms.

“The surplus still reflects strong global reliance on China’s industrial chain,” noted HSBC economist Li Cheng. “But the pricing squeeze is real — it’s a race to maintain margins.”

Market Reaction and Outlook

Financial markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong showed muted response, suggesting investors had anticipated some export moderation. Economists expect mild policy support ahead of December’s economic planning meetings, with Beijing likely to emphasize manufacturing innovation and export diversification to counter slowing demand from the US and Europe.

“We expect year-end recovery in trade value as logistics normalize and export prices stabilize,” said Morgan Stanley’s Asia-Pacific economist Yuki Tan.

October 2025 Snapshot — China Trade Indicators

Editor’s Analysis:

China’s October trade pullback underscores a shifting global trade landscape, where volume growth alone can’t offset margin pressure. For policymakers, the challenge now lies in balancing overcapacity and innovation, especially as EV and solar exports remain both a strategic advantage and a source of pricing pain.