New Delhi: India’s imports of Russian crude dropped sharply in September 2025, falling 29% in value and 17% in volume, marking the first full month under the United States’ new 50% tariffs on Indian goods. The data indicates a significant disruption in India’s energy supply strategy, which has heavily relied on discounted Russian oil since the start of the Ukraine war.
The decline comes as Indian refiners shift toward costlier Middle Eastern and African grades, raising procurement expenses and putting upward pressure on domestic fuel prices. Officials say the adjustment was unavoidable after US tariffs widened the pricing gap, making shipments from Russia less attractive once shipping, insurance, and currency risks were factored in.
The government is now exploring rapid diversification, including expanded purchases from the UAE, Iraq, and Latin America. However, Russia remains a key supplier, as its discounted barrels continue to offer savings even with market volatility.
Energy analysts warn that sustained reductions in Russian supply could lead to higher inflation, widen the fiscal burden on fuel subsidies, and complicate India’s economic planning ahead of winter. With geopolitical pressures rising, including tensions over sanctions and trade retaliation, the shift underscores the delicate balance between affordable energy access and global diplomatic constraints.
Officials say the situation will be closely monitored in the coming months as India seeks stable long-term contracts while navigating the evolving trade landscape.
