Monsoon Withdrawal Analysis – Just as the monsoon enters India with a timeline, it also departs in a defined manner. Its withdrawal is marked by specific weather changes, based on which the Meteorological Department confirms the complete retreat.
The withdrawal usually begins from western Rajasthan in the first week of September. By the end of the month, central states like Madhya Pradesh see its retreat. Normally, the entire country witnesses complete withdrawal by October 15th.
Monsoon Returning Early This Year
This year, after widespread heavy rainfall, the monsoon has started withdrawing earlier than usual. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the process began on September 4th. Typically, the southwest monsoon withdraws between September 15th–17th and ends by October 15th. But in 2025, the retreat has arrived much ahead of schedule.
Earliest Departure in a Decade
IMD confirms that this is the earliest withdrawal since 2015. Historical data shows that before 1940, the withdrawal often began on September 1st. However, under the revised system introduced in 2020, the official date was fixed as September 17th.
How Does Monsoon Withdrawal Happen?
The process begins in western Rajasthan around mid-September, then gradually extends to Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and other parts of central India. By early October, the low-pressure zone moves towards the northern Bay of Bengal, marking the retreat from the northeast and southern states.
This entire withdrawal takes about 4–5 weeks.
Not Just the End of Rain
The retreat of the monsoon is not just about rainfall stopping. It also brings changes in:
Air pressure
Wind direction
Humidity levels
When northeasterly winds replace the southwesterlies, it marks the final stage of the withdrawal. This also signals the beginning of cooler weather conditions across India.
Heavy Rain in Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh has received above-normal rainfall this year. Against an average of 37 inches, the state recorded 42.7 inches so far. Experts believe that as the monsoon departs, some districts may still receive additional rainfall until early October.
Cold Weather From Late October
According to meteorologist Divya E. Surendran, light rainfall may continue in Madhya Pradesh until early October. But from the end of October, mild winter will set in, and some regions may experience cold weather earlier than usual.
