INVC NEWS
Washington : Allan Lichtman, a famous historian who predicts the US election, has claimed Kamala Harris’ victory. His claim is also important because 9 out of 10 of his predictions made in the last 40 years have proved to be true. Lichtman was among the few people who predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. Trump praised him for this. However, when Biden dropped out of the presidential race last July, he called this decision a big mistake for the Democratic Party.
After a month and a half, Lichtman’s tone has changed. He said that Harris’ victory is certain in the elections to be held on November 5. Lichtman does not make predictions related to elections on the basis of any survey but on the basis of his ‘Keys to the White House Model’. He developed it in 1981 with his friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok. This model was prepared on the basis of the results of all the US presidential elections held in the last 120 years.
On this basis, they have been predicting the US presidential elections since 1984. Under this model, they evaluate the candidates on 13 criteria. These criteria include factors like midterm elections, incumbency, primary elections, independent candidates, short term economy, long term economy, policy change, White House scandal, failure in foreign policy, success in foreign policy, charisma of the opposition candidate, qualities of the ruling candidate.
