One Battle After Another Leads the Pack
The 98th Academy Awards, set for March 8, 2026, are shaping up as a clash between prestige dramas and daring indie films from the 2025 festival circuit. Early buzz from Venice, Telluride, and TIFF positions Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another as the front-runner for Best Picture, bolstered by Leonardo DiCaprio’s career-defining performance and PTA’s masterful direction.
However, the field remains competitive. Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners are hot on its heels, offering intimate drama and socially charged thrillers. Analysts caution that late-year releases could shake up predictions.
Best Picture Contenders
| Rank | Film | Director | Distributor | Why It Contends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | One Battle After Another | Paul Thomas Anderson | Warner Bros. | Festival darling; DiCaprio buzz; sweeping nomination potential |
| 2 | Hamnet | Chloé Zhao | A24 | Shakespeare adaptation; Saoirse Ronan’s quiet brilliance anchors it |
| 3 | Sentimental Value | Unknown | Searchlight | Stellan Skarsgård elevates family drama; emotional resonance |
| 4 | Sinners | Ryan Coogler | Warner Bros. | High-octane horror with social commentary; Coogler’s pivot post-Black Panther |
| 5 | Marty Supreme | Josh Safdie | A24 | Timothée Chalamet’s magnetic lead in a quirky sports biopic |
| 6 | Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere | Unknown | 20th Century | Jeremy Allen White channels Bruce Springsteen; musician biopic magnet for Oscars |
| 7 | A House of Dynamite | Kathryn Bigelow | Annapurna | Explosive actioner with Bigelow’s signature tension |
| 8 | Jay Kelly | Unknown | Netflix | Adam Sandler’s dramatic reinvention in a comedy-drama hybrid |
| 9 | The Secret Agent | Kleber Mendonça Filho | Neon | Wagner Moura’s international crossover; Brazil’s Oscar hopeful |
| 10 | Wicked: For Good | Jon M. Chu | Universal | Ariana Grande’s supporting flair could electrify musical categories |
Key Categories and Early Predictions
Best Director: PTA (One Battle After Another) leads, but Zhao (Hamnet), Coogler (Sinners), Bigelow (A House of Dynamite), and Safdie (Marty Supreme) are strong competitors.
Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) – vulnerable and unhinged performance, positioning him for a second win.
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen)
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
Best Actress:
Saoirse Ronan (Hamnet)
Renate Reinsve (Unknown film)
Jennifer Lawrence (Unknown comeback role)
Teyana Taylor (Sinners)
Chase Infiniti (Supporting crossover)
Best Supporting Actor: Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) and Penn (One Battle After Another) anchor ensemble-heavy films; Paul Mescal adds youthful charm.
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) leads the buzz, but Taylor (Sinners) could steal the spotlight.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Hamnet’s Shakespearean roots and literary fidelity give it an edge.
Best Original Screenplay: Sentimental Value’s poignant family drama is a frontrunner.
Cinematography & Film Editing: PTA’s sweeping visuals in One Battle After Another and Coogler’s gritty Sinners dominate technical categories.
Observations & Trends
The early Oscar season is top-heavy, with PTA, Zhao, and Coogler leading multiple categories.
Streaming contenders like Netflix’s Frankenstein and Jay Kelly could consolidate late-season buzz.
International entries like Neon’s The Secret Agent remain dark horse candidates.
Looking Ahead
Festivals like AFI Fest and late-year releases will clarify the landscape. Expect shifts in Best Picture and acting categories as studios launch awards campaigns.
Bold prediction: Will DiCaprio finally clinch his long-awaited second Oscar, or will a fresh talent like Chalamet or Mescal take the spotlight?
